美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)公布利率決定 宣布加息25個(gè)基點(diǎn)

騰訊證券訊 北京時(shí)間周四凌晨2:00，美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)公布利率決議，宣布加息25個(gè)基點(diǎn)，將聯(lián)邦基金利率目標(biāo)區(qū)間上調(diào)至0.75%-1.0%，符合市場(chǎng)廣泛預(yù)期。這是美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)自2016年12月之后的再度加息，也是美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)十年以來的第三次加息。

此外，聯(lián)儲(chǔ)的最新經(jīng)濟(jì)及利率預(yù)期顯示，聯(lián)儲(chǔ)預(yù)計(jì)未來三年還將加息9次，比去年12月時(shí)的預(yù)期多1次，而今年還將加息2次。

美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)的貨幣政策決策機(jī)構(gòu)——聯(lián)邦公開市場(chǎng)委員會(huì)（FOMC）在這份聲明中指出，就業(yè)市場(chǎng)已繼續(xù)增強(qiáng)，經(jīng)濟(jì)活動(dòng)一直都在繼續(xù)以穩(wěn)健的步伐擴(kuò)張；就業(yè)增長保持穩(wěn)健，失業(yè)率在最近幾個(gè)月中幾無變動(dòng)；家庭支出一直都在繼續(xù)穩(wěn)健增長，而企業(yè)固定投資則看似已在某種程度上變得堅(jiān)挺。通貨膨脹在最近幾個(gè)季度中有所上升，接近于達(dá)到聯(lián)邦公開市場(chǎng)委員會(huì)2%的長期目標(biāo)；不計(jì)入能源和食品價(jià)格，通貨膨脹基本保持不變，并繼續(xù)在某種程度上低于2%。

美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)決策官員一致確認(rèn)2017年將加息3次；2019年料將略微更快地加息，維持2018年和更長周期的利率預(yù)期不變。

美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)同時(shí)公布的利率預(yù)期中值顯示，今年還會(huì)有兩次加息。決議公布后，美股強(qiáng)勁攀升，美元匯率下挫，美債收益率跳水，黃金漲。

在此次會(huì)議上，有一名與會(huì)委員投票反對(duì)加息，而是支持將其維持在現(xiàn)有的0.50%到0.75%的目標(biāo)區(qū)間不變。

繼上周五公布的數(shù)據(jù)顯示美國2月份新增非農(nóng)就業(yè)人口超出預(yù)期后，交易員們已將美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)3月份加息25個(gè)基點(diǎn)看成了板上釘釘?shù)氖?。期貨行情也表明，市?chǎng)走勢(shì)正在日益吻合美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)12月作出的2017年加息三次的預(yù)期軌跡。今年將成為2006年以來首個(gè)美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)多次加息的年份。在利率決定公布之前，芝加哥商品交易所集團(tuán)的“美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)觀察”（FedWatch）工具顯示，市場(chǎng)預(yù)計(jì)美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)在3月加息的可能性達(dá)到95.2%。

美國勞工部周三公布的報(bào)告顯示，2月份消費(fèi)價(jià)格指數(shù)(CPI)環(huán)比上升0.1%；之前1月份升幅為0.6%，創(chuàng)近四年最大升幅。這也強(qiáng)化了通脹符合美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)目標(biāo)的觀點(diǎn)。

自上次FOMC會(huì)議以來，不少美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)官員都公開表示愿意在近期加息，最早在3月加息。費(fèi)城聯(lián)儲(chǔ)主席Patrick Harker周二表示：“我不會(huì)將三月加息的可能性排除?！边_(dá)拉斯聯(lián)儲(chǔ)主席Robert Kaplan本月早些時(shí)候表示，美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)本次采取行動(dòng)宜早不宜遲。

據(jù)《華爾街日?qǐng)?bào)》此前報(bào)道，調(diào)查發(fā)現(xiàn)，如果美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)本周的確加息，69.5%的受訪經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家預(yù)計(jì)該央行今年第二次加息將在6月份，另有8.5%和20.3%的受訪者預(yù)計(jì)美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)會(huì)在今年7月和9月進(jìn)行第二次加息。

以下是美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)3月份貨幣政策聲明的全文：

自聯(lián)邦公開市場(chǎng)委員會(huì)2月份召開會(huì)議以來所收到的信息表明，就業(yè)市場(chǎng)已繼續(xù)增強(qiáng)，經(jīng)濟(jì)活動(dòng)一直都在繼續(xù)以穩(wěn)健的步伐擴(kuò)張。就業(yè)增長保持穩(wěn)健，失業(yè)率在最近幾個(gè)月中幾無變動(dòng)。家庭支出一直都在繼續(xù)穩(wěn)健增長，而企業(yè)固定投資則看似已在某種程度上變得堅(jiān)挺。通貨膨脹在最近幾個(gè)季度中有所上升，靠近聯(lián)邦公開市場(chǎng)委員會(huì)2%的長期目標(biāo)；不計(jì)入能源和食品價(jià)格，通貨膨脹基本保持不變，并繼續(xù)在某種程度上低于2%。整體而言，以市場(chǎng)為基礎(chǔ)的通脹補(bǔ)償指標(biāo)仍舊保持在較低水平；以調(diào)查報(bào)告為基礎(chǔ)的長期通脹預(yù)期指標(biāo)則基本保持不變。

聯(lián)邦公開市場(chǎng)委員會(huì)正在依據(jù)其法定使命來尋求培育最大就業(yè)和物價(jià)穩(wěn)定。聯(lián)邦公開市場(chǎng)委員會(huì)目前預(yù)計(jì)，通過逐步調(diào)整貨幣政策立場(chǎng)的方式，經(jīng)濟(jì)活動(dòng)將以穩(wěn)健的步伐擴(kuò)張，就業(yè)市場(chǎng)狀況將進(jìn)一步在某種程度上有所增強(qiáng)，預(yù)計(jì)通脹率將在中期內(nèi)持穩(wěn)在2%附近。經(jīng)濟(jì)前景的近期風(fēng)險(xiǎn)看似大致平衡。聯(lián)邦公開市場(chǎng)委員會(huì)將繼續(xù)密切監(jiān)控通貨膨脹指標(biāo)以及全球經(jīng)濟(jì)和金融形勢(shì)的發(fā)展。

考慮到已實(shí)現(xiàn)及預(yù)期的就業(yè)市場(chǎng)狀況和通貨膨脹，聯(lián)邦公開市場(chǎng)委員會(huì)決定將聯(lián)邦基金利率的目標(biāo)區(qū)間上調(diào)至0.75%至1%。貨幣政策立場(chǎng)仍將保持寬松，從而為就業(yè)市場(chǎng)狀況的進(jìn)一步加強(qiáng)和通貨膨脹持續(xù)重返2%提供支持。

為了判定聯(lián)邦基金利率目標(biāo)區(qū)間未來調(diào)整的時(shí)機(jī)選擇和規(guī)模，聯(lián)邦公開市場(chǎng)委員會(huì)將對(duì)有關(guān)其最大就業(yè)和2%通貨膨脹目標(biāo)的已實(shí)現(xiàn)和預(yù)期經(jīng)濟(jì)狀況進(jìn)行評(píng)估。這種評(píng)估將把一系列廣泛的信息考慮在內(nèi)，包括有關(guān)就業(yè)市場(chǎng)狀況的指標(biāo)、通脹壓力和通脹預(yù)期指標(biāo)、以及有關(guān)金融和國際形勢(shì)發(fā)展的讀數(shù)等。聯(lián)邦公開市場(chǎng)委員會(huì)將仔細(xì)監(jiān)控與其對(duì)稱性通貨膨脹目標(biāo)相關(guān)的實(shí)際和預(yù)期將有的通貨膨脹發(fā)展形勢(shì)。聯(lián)邦公開市場(chǎng)委員會(huì)預(yù)計(jì)，經(jīng)濟(jì)狀況的發(fā)展將可令其有理由逐步上調(diào)聯(lián)邦基金利率；在一段時(shí)間之內(nèi)，聯(lián)邦基金利率很可能仍將保持在低于長期普遍值的水平。但是，聯(lián)邦基金利率的實(shí)際道路將依賴于未來數(shù)據(jù)所表明的經(jīng)濟(jì)前景。

聯(lián)邦公開市場(chǎng)委員會(huì)將維持現(xiàn)有的政策，將來自于所持機(jī)構(gòu)債和機(jī)構(gòu)抵押貸款支持債券的本金付款再投資到機(jī)構(gòu)抵押貸款支持債券中去，在國債發(fā)售交易中對(duì)即將到期的美國國債進(jìn)行展期，并預(yù)計(jì)直到聯(lián)邦基金利率水平的正常化進(jìn)程順利展開以前都將繼續(xù)這樣做。這項(xiàng)政策令聯(lián)邦公開市場(chǎng)委員會(huì)的長期債券持有量保持在可觀的水平，應(yīng)可有助于保持融通的金融狀況。

在此次會(huì)議上投票支持聯(lián)邦公開市場(chǎng)委員會(huì)貨幣政策行動(dòng)的委員有：主席珍妮特·耶倫（Janet L. Yellen）、副主席威廉·杜德利（William C. Dudley）、萊爾·布萊恩納德（Lael Brainard）、查爾斯·埃文斯（harles L. Evans）、斯坦利·費(fèi)希爾（Stanley Fischer）、帕特里克·哈克（Patrick Harker）、羅伯特·卡普蘭（Robert S. Kaplan）、杰羅姆·鮑威爾（Jerome H. Powell）和丹尼爾·塔魯洛（Daniel K. Tarullo）。尼爾·凱西卡瑞（Neel Kashkari）則投票反對(duì)這一行動(dòng)，他在此次會(huì)議上更希望維持聯(lián)邦基金利率的現(xiàn)有目標(biāo)區(qū)間不變。（星云）

美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)聲明原文如下：

Information received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in February indicates that the labor market has continued to strengthen and that economic activity has continued to expand at a moderate pace. Job gains remained solid and the unemployment rate was little changed in recent months. Household spending has continued to rise moderately while business fixed investment appears to have firmed somewhat. Inflation has increased in recent quarters, moving close to the Committee’s 2 percent longer-run objective; excluding energy and food prices, inflation was little changed and continued to run somewhat below 2 percent. Market-based measures of inflation compensation remain low; survey-based measures of longerterm inflation expectations are little changed, on balance.

Consistent with its statutory mandate, the Committee seeks to foster maximum employment and price stability. The Committee expects that, with gradual adjustments in the stance of monetary policy, economic activity will expand at a moderate pace, labor market conditions will strengthen somewhat further, and inflation will stabilize around 2 percent over the medium term. Near-term risks to the economic outlook appear roughly balanced. The Committee continues to closely monitor inflation indicators and global economic and financial developments.

In view of realized and expected labor market conditions and inflation, the Committee decided to raise the target range for the federal funds rate to 3/4 to 1 percent. The stance of monetary policy remains accommodative, thereby supporting some further strengthening in labor market conditions and a sustained return to 2 percent inflation.

In determining the timing and size of future adjustments to the target range for the federal funds rate, the Committee will assess realized and expected economic conditions relative to its objectives of maximum employment and 2 percent inflation. This assessment will take into account a wide range of information, including measures of labor market conditions, indicators of inflation pressures and inflation expectations, and readings on financial and international developments. The Committee will carefully monitor actual and expected inflation developments relative to its symmetric inflation goal.

The Committee expects that economic conditions will evolve in a manner that will warrant gradual increases in the federal funds rate; the federal funds rate is likely to remain, for some time, below levels that are expected to prevail in the longer run. However, the actual path of the federal funds rate will depend on the economic outlook as informed by incoming data.

The Committee is maintaining its existing policy of reinvesting principal payments from its holdings of agency debt and agency mortgage-backed securities in agency mortgage-backed securities and of rolling over maturing Treasury securities at auction, and it anticipates doing so until normalization of the level of the federal funds rate is well under way. This policy, by keeping the Committee’s holdings of longer-term securities at sizable levels, should help maintain accommodative financial conditions.

Voting for the FOMC monetary policy action were: Janet L. Yellen, Chair; William C. Dudley, Vice Chairman; Lael Brainard; Charles L. Evans; Stanley Fischer; Patrick Harker; Robert S. Kaplan; Jerome H. Powell; and Daniel K. Tarullo. Voting against the action was Neel Kashkari, who preferred at this meeting to maintain the existing target range for the federal funds rate.